For someone who writes regularly about wine trends, this is an annoying season. I’ve been telling you, dear reader, about what’s in, what’s out, and what’s to come all year long. But now that it’s December, suddenly I get all sorts of questions about my wine predictions for the coming year.

Well, I would love to bring you all new and fresh, positively candy-coated news about 2025. But the honest truth is that many of the same, alarming trends we’ve been talking about during much of 2024 will continue to evolve. Others below are new developments I expect that we’ll all be talking about. My top five are below.

1. White wine will continue to become more popular than red wine. 

The rise of white wine, and the decline of red wine, is no longer anecdotal or apocryphal, as we reported a few months ago. The news that white and rosé now surpass red in worldwide consumption may have surprised a lot of people, but the data is real.

The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) reported that white wine now accounts for 43 percent of global wine consumption, up 10 percent over the past two decades. In the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer of white wine, consumption rose 65 percent from 2000 to 2021. Meanwhile, worldwide red wine consumption is down more than 15 percent since 2007, according to the OIV report. How will this growing preference for white affect the wine industry? We’ll be watching closely.

2. Neo-prohibitionism is real. And the wine industry needs to push back. 

I have been warning the industry about this for more than two years. Worldwide, there are forces that are hell-bent on demonizing booze and using the government to curb drinking in the same way as tobacco. So far, the industry response has been weak, ineffective, and rather head-in-the-sand.

This problem isn’t going away. In fact, right now, the nation’s dietary guidelines—published every five years by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Health and Human Services (HHS)—are in the process of review. So far, the case for moderate drinking as part of a healthy lifestyle remains strong. But it’s being vehemently challenged in a second review by a chorus of anti-alcohol groups who would love nothing better than a return to Prohibition. 

3. Cheap, bulk wine will continue its decline.

We wrote about this during the summer, in what was one of NWR’s most popular articles of the year. The idea of cheap, bulk wine as “starter wine” is a myth, and it’s likely a prime reason why younger people aren’t drawn to wine in general. The American wine companies have become so reliant on branded cheap bulk wine that it’s dragging down the whole industry. 

Study after study shows that young people are drinking less but spending more. Several show that millennials already spend more on wine, per bottle, than boomers do. But industry largely scoffs at natural wine, despite its popularity among younger drinkers. It’s ignored the fact that younger drinkers want fewer additives, more sustainable practices, ethical production, and transparency. Will the American wine industry pull out of this spiral? I don’t think they’re capable of it, and there will be tough times ahead.

4. $31.99 wine is the new $12.99 wine.

This goes hand in hand with the wine industry’s reliance on poor-quality, bulk wines. The price of so-called “entry-level” wine has stagnated at around $12 for more than a decade. Two years ago, the annual “State of the Wine Industry” report from Silicon Valley Bank made it clear: “The wine industry has allowed the lower-priced entry-level wines to be produced without transparency as to ingredients and in a homogenous and uninteresting way that’s unlikely to appeal to those young consumers who want to drink better and drink less today.”

What’s happened on the flipside, though, is also interesting. Wines over $30 are notching robust sales right now. As I’ve reviewed wines this year, I’ve noticed over and over how many great wines cost somewhere in the $30-35 range. In fact, if I revisit the wines I’ve recommended—and the popular wines at shops and on menus—so many of them sit priced at $32. It makes sense. The price of every other consumer product has risen. Wine has too. 

5. De-mystifying or simplifying or “making wine fun” will (finally) be overdone.

Nearly anyone who shoots video as a wine influencer—or who publishes a book on wine or talks about wine in professional settings— seems to think that people want wine to be simple and easy to understand. Is that true? I’m not so sure. The impulse to de-mystify wine seems more and more like a fool’s errand, and one that results in middling, repetitive content.

Wine’s complexity will always be part of its appeal. Wine is as vast and surprising as the world itself. Hopefully, we can remember that once in a while. And perhaps in 2025, the time is right to “re-mystify” wine—in the best way possible.